State of Origin 2022 Game 2 – Preview & Betting Tips

State of Origin 2022 Game 1 logo

State of Origin 2022 Game 2 logo

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2022 State of Origin Series.

2022 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney

NSW 10-16 QLD
NSW tries: Jack Wighton 14′, Cameron Murray 71′
QLD tries: Dane Gagai 34′, Daly Cherry-Evans 48′, Valentine Holmes 53′

The Blues suffered their first home defeat since 2017. NSW scored first but trailed 4-6 at halftime as they struggled to take any control of the match. It went down to the wire, however, as Blues just fell short in their last-ditch effort to force extra time. The win was no less than Queensland deserved as they dominated the game through the middle. Nathan Cleary had a poor game for the Blues by his high standards while halves Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans were excellent for Queensland.

Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
Sunday, 26 June, 7:50 PM AEST

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 13 July, 8:10pm AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Year Winner Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
2000 NSW
3-0
NSW 20-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 56-6 QLD
(Sydney)
2001 QLD
2-1
QLD 34-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 26-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 40-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
2002 QLD
1-1-1
NSW 32-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-18 QLD
(Sydney)
2003 NSW
2-1
QLD 12-25 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 27-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 36-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2004 NSW
2-1
NSW 9-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 22-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 34-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2005 NSW
2-1
QLD 24-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 32-22 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-32 NSW
(Brisbane)
2006 QLD
2-1
NSW 17-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 14-16 QLD
(Melbourne)
2007 QLD
2-1
QLD 25-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 4-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
2008 QLD
2-1
NSW 18-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-0 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2009 QLD
2-1
QLD 28-18 NSW
(Melbourne)
NSW 14-24 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 16-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
2010 QLD
3-0
NSW 24-28 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-23 QLD
(Sydney)
2011 QLD
2-1
QLD 16-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-24 NSW
(Brisbane)
2012 QLD
2-1
NSW 10-18 QLD
(Melbourne)
NSW 16-12 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 21-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
2013 QLD
2-1
NSW 14-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-12 QLD
(Sydney)
2014 NSW
2-1
QLD 8-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 32-8 NSW
(Brisbane)
2015 QLD
2-1
NSW 10-11 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 18-26 NSW
(Melbourne)
QLD 52-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2016 QLD
2-1
NSW 4-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-14 QLD
(Sydney)
2017 QLD
2-1
QLD 4-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 16-18 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 22-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2018 NSW
2-1
NSW 22-12 QLD
(Melbourne)
NSW 18-14 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 18-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
2019 NSW
2-1
QLD 18-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
QLD 6-38 NSW
(Perth)
NSW 26-20 QLD
(Sydney)
2020 QLD
2-1
NSW 14-18 QLD
(Adelaide)
NSW 34-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 20-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
2021 NSW
2-1
QLD 6-50 NSW
(Townsville)
QLD 0-26 NSW
(Brisbane)
QLD 20-18 NSW
(Gold Coast)
2022 NSW
2-1
NSW 10-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD vs. NSW
(Perth)
QLD vs. NSW
(Brisbane)

 

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-10 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 22-9 in Queensland.

On neutral soil Queensland won all three between 2006 and 2012, then NSW won all three between 2015 and 2019, before Queensland won in 2020.

2022 State of Origin Game 2 Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Matt Burton, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Apisai Koroisau, 10. Jake Trbojevic, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Damien Cook, 15. Angus Crichton, 16. Junior Paulo, 17. Siosifa Talakai
Reserves: 18. Nicho Hynes, Joseph Suaalii, Jordan McLean, Clint Gutherson, Victor Radley
Coach: Brad Fittler

The Blues have made seven changes to their 22-man squad from Game 1, with only one change being injury-enforced. Jack Wighton, who one of their best players in Game 1, is unavailable due to covid protocols. Fellow centre Kotoni Staggs has been dropped so the Blues will feature another new centre combination of debutant Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton. Apisai Koroisau has been promoted from the extended squad to start at hooker with Damien Cook starting on the bench. Jake Trbojevic has been recalled to start on the front row, with Reagan Campbell-Gillard dropped from the squad. Tariq Sims and Ryan Matterson have also been dropped, with Angus Crichton and Siosifa Talakai the new names on the bench. The NSW starting 13 features 7 Panthers players.

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Lindsay Collins, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Jai Arrow, 16. Patrick Carrigan, 17. Jeremiah Nanai
Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden, Tom Flegler, Beau Fermor, Corey Oates, Reece Walsh
Coach: Billy Slater

The Maroons have made two injury-enforced personnel changes to the 17-man squad from Game 1. Cowboys winger Murray Taulagi will make his Origin debut after he was called in to replace the injured Xavier Coates. Lock Reuben Cotter is also out injured, so Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has been moved to lock with Lindsay Collins promoted from the interchange to start as prop. Jai Arrow has been promoted from the reserves to the bench to take Collins’ vacated spot.

Neutral venue stats

This is only the second Origin fixture at Optus Stadium. The Blues won the previous fixture 38-6 in Game 2 in 2019. That was the on the back of a 4-point Game 1 defeat in Brisbane.

Since 2006 the Maroons have won four games at neutral venues to the Blues’ three, however the Blues have won three of the last four fixtures on neutral soil, including their previous clash in Perth.

Six of those seven games were settled by 10 points or less. The Blues’ 32-point win in 2019 is an outlier. Four of the seven games were settled by 8-10 points.

The average total score was 36.9 with a median of 34.0. Three games had a total between 44 and 46 points, while the other four ranged between 28 and 34 points.

Game 2 stats

NSW have won eight of the last eleven Game 2 fixtures, including the last four. Their last three Game 2 wins were by heavy margins:
2019: QLD 6-38 NSW (Melbourne)
2020: NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney)
2021: QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane)

The last time NSW lost Game 1 at home and then played Game 2 on neutral soil, they prevailed 26-16 in Melbourne in 2015. Interestingly, they were then pummeled 52-6 in Game 3 in Brisbane, so I’m curious to see whether history repeats itself.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Perth weather forecast for Sunday is partly cloudy with a temperature range of 7-19 and a 5% chance of rain.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin Game 2 odds in the odds comparison section.

Game 2 Preview

The Blues only lost Game 1 by one try, so the question remains whether Brad Fittler has over-reacted by making so many changes for the Game 2 squad. The Blues made last-minute changes prior to Game 1, which hints at selection indecisiveness. Historically, a high number of Blues’ tries have been scored by centres, so much of how they fare in Game 2 will come down to the performances of their new pairing of Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton. The Blues will also hope that Nathan Cleary doesn’t have another off-night after a sub-par performance in Game 1.

Queensland have made the perfect start under new head coach Billy Slater, who has has reacted by only making injury-enforced squad changes for Game 2. You can make the case that he out-coached Brad Fittler in Game 1 so it will be interesting to see whether Fittler’s raft of changes will have an impact.

Futures Betting

Since Origin became a three-game series in 1982, only one team has bounced back from 1-0 down to win an Origin series when they didn’t have another home fixture for the remainder of the series. The Blues can take heart from their 26-0 win at Suncorp Stadium last year, however history is against them.

With a game at Suncorp Stadium still to come, Queensland to win this year’s series at 1.42 (BlueBet) holds appeal.

Game 2 Betting

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 2 are:

New South Wales: 1.72 (bet365, BlueBet)
Queensland: 2.20 (Unibet)

The last two times that Game 2 was held in neutral territory following a NSW defeat in Game 1, the Blues went on to win Game 2. NSW have also won each of the last four Game 2 fixtures as well as five of the last six Game 2’s following a defeat in Game 1.

A strong trend in the State of Origin is for an improvement in outcome by the loser of the previous fixture. Since 2001, 16 of the 21 losing sides in Game 1 improved upon their losing margin in the second game. They either won Game 2 or lost Game 2 by a smaller margin of defeat than Game 1. The average shift in fortunes has been large. Over the last 21 years the loser of Game 1 has improved upon their losing margin by an average of 11.4 points. This shift exceeds the average Game 1 losing margin of 9.6, which explains why 12 of the 21 Game 1 losers went on to win Game 2. Of the teams that lost Game 1 by six points or less, 60% went onto win Game 2. Based on that stat the fair odds for Game 2 are:
New South Wales: 1.67
Queensland: 2.50

Whether or not you agree with those odds comes down to whether you believe that Brad Fittler has improved the side with his squad changes for Game 2.

Line

NSW are 2.5-point favourites at the time of writing.

Since 2001, 76% of Game 1 losers improved upon their losing margin in Game 2 and of those that lost Game 1 by six points or less, 60% went on to win Game 2. For this reason history suggests that the Blues will improve upon their 6-point margin of defeat from Game 1. Whether that results in a win or not remains to be seen.

Total score

Most bookmakers have set the total at 38.5. Of the last six Origin games on neutral soil, three went above 43.5 points and three went under 33.5 points, with nothing in between. It’s a similar story for previous Game 2’s across all venues. For Game 2 over the last eight years, four went above 42.5 and four went under 34.5, with no total scores in between. Given the absence of ‘medium’ totals, one possible strategy is to back both over 42.5 points at 2.60 (Unibet) and under 34.5 at 2.38 (Unibet). This combination would have returned a profit in each of the last 22 Origin games.

Generally, Game 2 total scores are in reaction to Game 1. High scoring Game 1’s tend to be followed by lower scoring Game 2’s and vice versa. The last five times the average Game 1 total was 32 or less (25.4 on average) the average Game 2 total was 41.6 In contrast, last five times the average Game 1 total was higher than 32 (46.2 on average), the average Game 2 total was 30.4. With Game 1 resulting in just 26 points scored, if I had to bet on the Game 2 total I would take over 38.5 at 1.95 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider backing over 42.5 points at 2.60 (Unibet) for the reasons described in the previous paragraph.

Try Scorer

As always there are countless contenders so I will just focus on a few.

Nine of the Blues’ seventeen tries scored in 2021 & 2022 were by players named at centre. Stephen Crichton has scored nine tries in seventeen games for the Panthers this season while Matt Burton has scored only three tries for the Bulldogs, so of the two Blues centres, Crichton looks to be the better value at 13.00 / 2.90 (BlueBet in the first and anytime scorer markets, respectively.

Queensland try scorers are traditionally dominated by wingers so Selwyn Cobbo (2.20 / 11.00) and Murray Taulagi (2.25 / 11.00) are the primary Maroons candidates. Cobbo and Taulagi have scored 11 and 9 tries in the NRL this season, respectively.

 

Author: info

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