State of Origin 2022 Game 1 – Preview & Betting Tips

State of Origin 2022 Game 1 logo

State of Origin 2022 Game 1 logo

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2022 State of Origin Series.

2022 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 8 June, 8:10 PM AEST

Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
Sunday, 26 June, 7:50 PM AEST

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 13 July, 8:10pm AEST

2021 Series Recap

Game 1 – Townsville:

QLD 6-50 NSW

New South Wales recorded their biggest ever win over Queensland, winning 50-6 after leading 20-6 at halftime. The returns of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic were pivotal. The centres scored five tries between them as they were given freedom to play out of position. Winger Brian To’o scored twice on debut and Panthers five-eighth Jarome Luai also impressed in his first Origin match. Queensland weren’t helped by the loss of prop Christian Welch to a concussion early in the game, but they were totally outclassed on the night, despite the home support. It was a nightmare debut for Queensland coach Paul Green.

Game 2 – Brisbane:

QLD 0-26 NSW

Queensland received a double blow ahead of the game. Reece Walsh was ruled out with a hamstring injury and Ronaldo Mulitalo was ruled ineligible to play on the morning of the game. NSW continued their domination from Game 1, and ran out to a 18-0 lead at halftime. Queensland had a number of opportunities in the second half but couldn’t capitalise. The defeat was Queensland’s first at Suncorp Stadium since 2017. It was also the first time they had been held to nil since 1994.

Game 3 – Gold Coast:

QLD 20-18

The Blues employed a new halves pairing of Jack Wighton and Mitchell Moses. Fullback Kalyn Ponga joined the Queensland side after missing the first two games with injury. After losing the first two games by a combined 76-6, Queensland restored some pride by winning the dead rubber. This denied the Blues their first clean sweep since 2000. The two teams were separated by one penalty goal after each side scored three converted tries.

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Year Winner Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
2000 NSW
3-0
NSW 20-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 56-6 QLD
(Sydney)
2001 QLD
2-1
QLD 34-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 26-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 40-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
2002 QLD
1-1-1
NSW 32-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-18 QLD
(Sydney)
2003 NSW
2-1
QLD 12-25 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 27-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 36-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2004 NSW
2-1
NSW 9-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 22-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 34-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2005 NSW
2-1
QLD 24-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 32-22 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 10-32 NSW
(Brisbane)
2006 QLD
2-1
NSW 17-16 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 14-16 QLD
(Melbourne)
2007 QLD
2-1
QLD 25-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 4-18 NSW
(Brisbane)
2008 QLD
2-1
NSW 18-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 30-0 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-16 QLD
(Sydney)
2009 QLD
2-1
QLD 28-18 NSW
(Melbourne)
NSW 14-24 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 16-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
2010 QLD
3-0
NSW 24-28 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-23 QLD
(Sydney)
2011 QLD
2-1
QLD 16-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-8 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 34-24 NSW
(Brisbane)
2012 QLD
2-1
NSW 10-18 QLD
(Melbourne)
NSW 16-12 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 21-20 NSW
(Brisbane)
2013 QLD
2-1
NSW 14-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 10-12 QLD
(Sydney)
2014 NSW
2-1
QLD 8-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 6-4 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 32-8 NSW
(Brisbane)
2015 QLD
2-1
NSW 10-11 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 18-26 NSW
(Melbourne)
QLD 52-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2016 QLD
2-1
NSW 4-6 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 26-16 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 18-14 QLD
(Sydney)
2017 QLD
2-1
QLD 4-28 NSW
(Brisbane)
NSW 16-18 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 22-6 NSW
(Brisbane)
2018 NSW
2-1
NSW 22-12 QLD
(Melbourne)
NSW 18-14 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 18-12 NSW
(Brisbane)
2019 NSW
2-1
QLD 18-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
QLD 6-38 NSW
(Perth)
NSW 26-20 QLD
(Sydney)
2020 QLD
2-1
NSW 14-18 QLD
(Adelaide)
NSW 34-10 QLD
(Sydney)
QLD 20-14 NSW
(Brisbane)
2021 NSW
2-1
QLD 6-50 NSW
(Townsville)
QLD 0-26 NSW
(Brisbane)
QLD 20-18 NSW
(Gold Coast)

 

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-9 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 22-9 in Queensland.

2022 State of Origin Game 1 Squads

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Xavier Coates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Patrick Carrigan, 17. Jeremiah Nanai
18th man: Tom Dearden
Extended Squad: Murray Taulagi, Jai Arrow, Tom Flegler, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Coach: Billy Slater

Queensland commence life under new head coach Billy Slater after the Maroons parted ways with Paul Green following a terrible 2021 campaign. Slater will be supported by Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston and Josh Hannay as assistant coaches. The 17-man squad features four players on debut: Selwyn Cobbo and Patrick Carrigan from the Broncos, plus Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai from the Cowboys. A notable omission is David Fifita, who is out for 2-3 weeks with a knee injury, but he hasn’t been at his vintage best this season. Christian Welch isn’t available due to a season-ending Achilles injury.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Kotoni Staggs, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Stephen Crichton, 15. Liam Martin, 16. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 17. Ryan Matterson
18th man: Nicho Hynes
Extended Squad: Joseph Suaalii, Jacob Saifiti, Apisai Koroisau, Tyson Frizell
Coach: Brad Fittler

The 17-man Blues squad features three players on debut. Kotoni Staggs has been named in the starting side to form a new-look centre pairing with Jack Wighton, while Stephen Crichton and Ryan Matterson will debut from the bench. Winger Daniel Tupou’s form has seen him recalled at the expense of Josh Addo-Carr, while Reagan Campbell-Gillard returns to the bench for his first Origin call-up since 2018. In a major blow, centre Tom Trbojevic is out after he dislocated his shoulder. Fellow centre Latrell Mitchell is also out with a hamstring injury. Fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen would likely have been selected for his Origin debut but he’s out with a hamstring injury.

Accor Stadium history

Fixtures at Accor Stadium tend to have lower total scores than Suncorp Stadium. Since 2000 the average total score is 32.7 in Sydney compared to 38.1 in Brisbane. In recent years the tables have turned, however, with Sydney averaging 39.0 compared to 30.3 in Brisbane.

Fixtures at Accor Stadium tend to have narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium. Since 2000, 13 games were won by 1-12 points and 16 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 22 games were won by 1-12 points and just 6 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney. Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with the last 19 games out of 20 in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eleven 1-12 results and eleven 13+ results in Brisbane.

Since 2010 Queensland have gone compared to 6-8 in Sydney compared to 12-3 at Suncorp Stadium. The Blues have won four of the last five meetings in Sydney, including the last three. Their last home defeat was in 2017.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is party cloudy with a temperature range of 6-15 and a 10% chance of rain.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin Game 1 odds in the odds comparison section.

Series Betting

NSW are currently 1.66 (bet365) favourites to win the series while Queensland are 2.35 (BlueBet) underdogs.

Going back to 2003, 18 of the last 19 Origin series were won by 2-1 scorelines. For this reason the pairing of NSW 2-1 at 2.40 (bet365) and QLD 2-1 at 3.20 (BlueBet) holds strong appeal.

Game 1 Preview

The Blues are aiming to secure their fourth series win in five years. Some of Brad Fittlers’s selections have raised eyebrows and it will be interesting to see what impact the new centres pairing of Kotoni Staggs and Jack Wighton has. The injured Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic leave huge boots to fill given they contributed 8 out of the Blues’ 15 tries last year. History is firmly against the Blues if they lose this clash. Since Origin became a three-game series in 1982, only one team has bounced back from 1-0 down to win the series when they didn’t have another home game for the remainder of the series.

From the Maroons’ perspective, Billy Slater remains an unknown quantity as the new head coach, but he does have a strong ring of support around him. There’s a much better vibe coming out of the Queensland camp this year compared to the last. They had a number of players under injury clouds last year and this time round they are selecting more players from in-form clubs given that Melbourne, North Queensland and Brisbane all sit in the top four of the NRL ladder. It will be interesting to see how the two 19-year old debutants in Cobbo and Nanai fare at Origin level. Both players have fewer than 20 NRL games under their belts but they have both been electric this season.

On paper the Maroons should be more competitive than last year. The Blues’ Game 1 squad looks weaker on paper compared to 2021 while Queensland are in a better place than last year and should have a good team culture under the guidance of former Maroons’ legends.

Game 1 Betting

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 1 are:

New South Wales: 1.60 (BlueBet, Unibet)
Queensland: 2.45 (bet365)

The Blues have won four of the last five meetings in Sydney, including the last three. Their most recent home defeat was by a 2-point margin in 2017.

The Blues are currently 3.5, 4.0 or 4.5-point favourite in the line market, depending on the bookmaker. Four points is a key number because 8 of the Blues’ last 9 home wins were by 4+ points and three of those wins were by exactly 4 points. If you’re looking to back NSW at the line I recommend seeking out -3.5 points and if you’re looking to back Queensland I would stay clear of +3.5 and instead take an odds shave to back them at +4.5.

Total score

Most bookmakers have set the total at 36.5. Whether you take the over or under comes down to whether you believe there’s been a break in the data. Since 2000 the average total in Sydney is just 32.7, however the last two games at Accor Stadium resulted in 46 and 44 points scored. No more than 34 points were scored in the ten games prior to that.

Try Scorer

As always there are countless contenders so I will just focus on a few.

Blues’ wingers Daniel Tupou and Brian To’o lead the first try scorer market at 9.00 and 11.00 odds respectively. Of the Blues’ 15 tries last year, 13 came from out wide, however 8 of those were scored by players named at centre. If Staggs and Wighton can replicate the 2021 roles of Mitchell and Trbojevic, then they could be value at 15.00 and 2.65 odds each in the first and anytime try scorer markets, respectively. Wighton has scored 8 tries in 12 appearances this year compared to 3 for Staggs, so Wighton looks to be the better value of the two.

Selwyn Cobbo at 12.00 (bet365) is currently the most popular first try scorer choice with punters. One bookmaker has reported that they have taken three times as many bets on him in this market than any other player. This is understandable given the Maroons’ history of scoring from the wings and the fact that Cobbo has scored eight tries in his last four NRL games coming into this fixture.

Best Bet

At Accor Stadium the Blues’ last twelve margins (+ denote wins, – denote losses) have been:
10, 4, 8, -2, 2, -1, -2, 4, -2, 4, 6, 24

You have to go back to 2010 for the last time that NSW lost by more than 2 points in Sydney. For this reason I recommend the Blues +2.5 in the pick your own line market at 1.38 (BlueBet).

 

Author: info

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