The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Saturday, November 13. The focus is on the race cards at Cranbourne and Newcastle. The feature at Cranbourne is the Cranbourne Cup (Race 7), while the headline race at Newcastle is The Hunter (Race 8).
More tips will be added as they become available.
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These bets may change leading up to the race day.
Cranbourne Race 3: 1. Scissor Step at 3.00 (various)
Cranbourne Race 4: 3. Real Sensation at 3.70 (BlueBet, Sportsbet, Unibet)
Cranbourne Race 5: 2. Belle Plaisir (value) at 15.00 (bet365)
Cranbourne Race 8: 3. Mankayan at 3.60 (Sportsbet)
YOU ESS ESS ARE (12) Initial appearance for Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young 2yo by Russian Revolution. Price is very tempting. EL PADRINO (2) Ciaron Maher and David Eustace 2yo runner on debut by Street Boss. Blinkers on could be an important change. Should run into the placings at least. GREYT MUMMA (8) Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman 2yo debutant by Capitalist. Should be in the finish. TAUT YOU COULD (6) O’lonhro 2yo on debut for trainer Greg Eurell and will try to take advantage of the gate. Could run into the placings.
BLUSHING TYCOON (1) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Flemington and displays good tactical speed. Blinkers off could be an important change. Stand out selection. STATION ONE (2) Chimed in with a win two runs back at this track and goes down in weight. Capable of taking this out. THE AMAZONIAN (3) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd three runs back at this course and gets some weight taken off today. Should just about get the run of the race. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Suited. TOROPEAK (5) Finished 3rd last time at Moe and drawn nicely. On a short turnaround. Can feature.
SCISSOR STEP (1) Rocketed home into 2nd last time at Moonee Valley but rising in weight. Gets a nice run behind the speed. Should go well. JIGSAW (3) Forgive the run when 10th at Caulfield. Should improve today but has more weight to carry. Trainer has gone for the winkers on, take note. Definite winning chance. RIDUNA (7) Won narrowly three runs back at Wyong. Keep in mind. HE’S XCEPTIONAL (2) Looked good when 3rd two runs back at Moonee Valley and goes down in class. Could run into the placings.
REAL SENSATION (3) Produced an eye catching run when 2nd two runs back at Horsham and third up from a spell. Possesses good finishing speed. Appears as a winning threat. OUR LONE STAR (4) Came on strongly when 3rd last time at Bendigo and second up. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Better claims. LYRICAL LAD (5) Nice run when placing 2nd three runs back at this course and having third run back from a spell. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the pace. Right in this. MAGNUS BELLAGIO (7) Was fighting out the finish when winning last run at Kilmore and carrying less weight this time. One for the trifectas and first fours in this race.
APRIL RAIN (6) Ran on strongly when 2nd two runs back at Rosehill and drops back to a suitable class. Having third run back from a spell. Surprise if it doesn’t win with room to spare. MAYBE THE BEST (10) Led and controlled the pace to win by 1 1/4L last run at Bendigo and can find a nice position from the draw. Should jump out and bowl along. Live winning chance. PAUL’S REGRET (4) Did its best work late when 3rd last start at Flemington and will appreciate the drop in class. Can measure up to this company. BRAZEN SONG (3) Finished on top three runs back at the track. Likely to be well placed early. Worth an each way bet in this.
DEXELATION (2) Game effort to win last start at Moonee Valley and having third run back from a break. Flying this campaign with 2 wins from as many starts. Will go well. BLESS HER (4) Caught the eye when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Appears well in this. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) Rocketed home into 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and first up specialist. Should get going late. Winning prospect. HUFFINGTON (6) Brave effort to win three runs back at Morphettville and carrying less weight this time. Worth keeping safe.
OUR PLAYBOY (11) Fought on gamely when winning last time at Flemington and third up today. Always seems to find the line well. Ticks plenty of boxes and looks like value. BUFFALO RIVER (1) Won two runs back at Caulfield but rising in weight. Displays good tactical speed. Betting may be best guide to the chances and each way is the likely play. KING MAGNUS (10) Came on strongly when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield but has more weight to carry. Finishes off strongly. Chance for exotics punters. AGE OF CHIVALRY (3) Brave effort to win last time at Flemington but will have to carry extra weight today. Third up from a spell. Very strong each way claims.
MANKAYAN (3) Kept chasing when 2nd last time at Flemington but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Well suited and should prove hard to beat. NOBEL HEIGHTS (9) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Geelong and suited by the weight drop. Better claims. ACCOUNTABILITY (5) Displayed potential when winning three runs back at Kembla Grange but going up in weight. Has the ability to figure. BRILLIANT VENTURE (13) Showed promise when winning last run at this course and will benefit with the weight drop. One of the major hopes.
CAMBOURNE (8) Looked good when 2nd two runs back at Benalla but coming back in trip today. Tracking very well this preparation. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) Won by a huge margin two runs back at Morphettville. Resumes after a break. Has the ability to figure. THE GENERAL (1) Looked good when 3rd last run at Kyneton and won’t be far away during the run. Racing consistently since returning from a break. One at a bit of odds. SWEET SIXTEEN (14) Charged home into 3rd three runs back at Flemington and second up. Possesses very good closing speed. Chance for exotics punters.
Race 1: Greyt Mumma
Race 2: Blushing Tycoon
Race 3: Scissor Step
Race 4: Real Sensation
Race 5: Belle Plaisir
Race 6: Excess Funds
Race 7: Aramayo
Race 8: Mankayan
Race 9: High ‘N’ Dry
Race 3: 1. Scissor Step and/or 2. He’s Xceptional
Race 5: 6. April Rain win + quinella with 10. Maybe The Best
Race 6: 4. Bless Her, while 7. Sir Kalahad is value
Race 8: 3. Mankayan
PRARIE FLOWER had plenty against her on debut and ran OK considering. EL PADRINO jumped out well in useful time but draws wide. TAUT YOU COULD went nicely. YOU ESS ESS ARE won a jumpout well on Monday and ran much faster time than El Padrino. GREYT MUMMA led clearly in her heat and wasn’t knocked about when VALENCONI went by her late.
Selections: 12. You Ess Ess Are (Top Tip), 8. Greyt Mumma, 7. Valenconi, 6. Taut You Could
BLUSHING TYCOON fought hard at Flemington, splitting two promising three-year-olds. It looks the right form but he does come up to 60kg and STATION ONE (who faded badly that same race at Flemington) has a 5.5kg swing. His debut win on wet was good. THE AMAZONIAN had little luck last time in a race where Maracana ran third. That ties in the form with that Flemington race referenced above. TOROPEAK perhaps next.
Selections: 1. Blushing Tycoon (Top Tip), 2. Station One, 3. The Amazonian, 5. Toropeak
Not sure leader, most can race handy. SCISSOR STEP gave the smart Generation a scare at The Valley and beat third easily. HE’S XCEPTIONAL was a forgive run there (tongue over bit) and fancy he beats Minsk Moment/Port Louis here prior with even luck. That turned out good form. JIGSAW failed last time but clearly has a case on his second to He’s Xceptional at MV. RIDUNA has run into two smart fillies her last couple, back to 1200m now. XTRA GEAR back around a bend has a case. TRUE NOBILITY made ground at MV behind Marine One.
Selections: 1. Scissor Step (Top Tip), 2. He’s Xceptional, 7. Riduna, 3. Jigsaw
SPEED: 2,10 may lead 7 from 5? Alas, 9, 11, 12 are (key) dual acceptors. LOFTY STAR has been freshened and is back to 1500m but has never seen wet. REAL SENSATION made good ground in $500,000 Country Final at Flemington and looks ready but comes back 100m. OUR LONE STAR made a solid return, 1500m suits. LYRICAL LAD was wide last time and that ties in the Country Final form. Wary OCEANS OF STANIMA. MANASA goes close if here and if handles wet. THE SENTINEL has upside. AUDREY GIRL comes back from the Group 2 Wakeful to Class 3, and can win … if here?
Selections: 3. Real Sensation (Value Bet), 12. Audrey Girl, 2. Lofty Star, 9. Manasa
SPEED: 3 and 10 can lead 4, who may get a rails trail. APRIL RAIN was beaten by a good one fresh then luckless at Flemington. She likes wet ground. PAUL’S REGRET beat April Rain home last time and there were positive signs she might be back to her best. That ties in BELLE PLAISIR obviously. Like the form around MAYBE THE BEST. STANDOFF looks ready to win. BRAZEN SONG gave a huge sight last week. Any leader bias here?
Selections: 6. April Rain (Best of the Day), 10. Maybe The Best, 4. Paul’s Regret, 5. Standoff
SPEED: 7, 8 & 9 with 5, 4 up there. BLESS HER chased hard fresh then battled up the straight last time. Back around a bend here and back on to wet are the big ticks. SIR KALAHAD is a very good wet-tracker but has never won at 1000m. He did beat DEXELATION easily back in July on heavy ground, at 1200m. Dexelation is flying this prep though. I AM SOMEONE a value swooper? HUFFINGTON has Dexelation form. BLAZEJOWSKI is a ripper but 1000m with 60kg might be too much?
Selections: 4. Bless Her (Top Tip), 7. Sir Kalahad, 2. Dexelation, 3. I Am Someone
Speed looks good. BUFFALO RIVER held on OK in the G1 Cantala, a swoopers’ race. ARAMAYO beat him home and he also raced close to that strong speed. AGE OF CHIVALRY is back in the good books, he did run very well in the 2020 Cantala off a wide run remember. LUNAR FOX wasn’t far way in a fast Toorak Handicap. He has gone up BIG odds! JUSTACANTA is flying! HARBOUR VIEWS a hope but draws wide. OUR PLAYBOY also draws out but is unbeaten at 1600m and loves wet ground. NO EFFORT can win. KING MAGNUS is another in-form horse.
Selections: 11. Our Playboy (Top Tip), 3. Age Of Chivalry, 5. Lunar Fox
SPEED: 1 looks the leader from 3, 9, 2, 12? MANKAYAN made Great House work to beat him in the Hotham at Flemington and that horse was coming off a good effort in a Caulfield Cup. ACCOUNTABILITY beat Mankayan back in September. NOBEL HEIGHTS won well Geelong, not 100% sure wet ground is all. BLANDFORD LAD’s last two have been good. BRILLIANT VENTURE beat him last time. BRAWL tries 2500m. It looks OK and he has the upside. STARCASTER will give a sight. CONSTANTINOPLE is going better than the form guide says. ROYAL CROWN value improver?
Selections: 3. Mankayan (Top Tip), 1. Starcaster, 12. Brawl, 2. Constantinople
Speed good on paper. IMPERIAL HILTON is unbeaten fresh. HIGH ‘N’ DRY found the line nicely fresh and has won twice second up. NAVAL ENVOY gave a sight at Flemington in the greys race with ADDRESS MELBOURNE not far off him. MR ROGER has been kept fresh since a good return win. CAMBOURNE had a slow recovery rate last start. SWEET SIXTEEN produced a race-fastest last 200m in an on-pacers’ race at Sale and her Standoff form ties in that greys race. FRANKIE TWO ANGELS a hope. Gate?
Selections: 14. Sweet Sixteen (Top Tip), 5. Naval Envoy, 4. High ‘n’ Dry, 3. Imperial Hilton
Race 8: 1. Prime Candidate (17.00), 2 – Lost And Running (3.20), 3 – Gem Song (17.00)
UNCORKED (9) Pierro 2yo on debut for trainer Adrian Bott & Gai Waterhouse. Holds a major chance. VANCOUVER’S CROWN (4) 2yo debutant sired by Vancouver for trainer Jason Coyle. Each way. RUSSIAN CONQUEST (8) Russian Revolution 2yo trained by Peter Snowden & Paul Snowden on debut. Winning chance. MATISSE’S COMET (7) Your Song 2yo having first race appearance for trainer Gary Nickson. Respect the betting.
MA AND PA (2) Led throughout to win by 1 1/4L last run at Rosehill and should be going forward early. Going well this campaign winning 4 from as many starts. Rates a winning chance. SACRED COMMAND (10) Game effort to win three runs back at Goulburn and gets a reduction in weight. Ready to win. CISCO BAY (1) Kept finding the line when 3rd three runs back at Randwick and back from a freshen up. Possesses good closing speed. Strong chance. PRINCE OF ARRAGON (3) Jumped at $26 and came in 8th last run at Goulburn but second up from a break. Expected to settle towards the tail. Modest chance for multis.
CEASEFIRE (2) Won three runs back at Scone and goes down in weight. Will give a big sight. CASINO KID (5) Did its best work late when 2nd three runs back at Randwick and third up today. Expected to be flashing home. Must respect in this event. RAOUL (8) Left nothing to chance when winning three runs back at Scone and dropping weight today. Market watch advised and can run into the money. TESTATOR SILENS (18) Did a good job when winning two runs back at Wagga. Having third run back from a break. Goes very close.
CREAM RISES (8) Finished more than 3L behind the winner at Rosehill last run on a good surface. Expected to be flashing home. Respect against this field. TAMPERING (4) Ran on strongly when 5th last run at Rosehill and likely to be well placed early. Very competitive this preparation. Capable of getting into the money. HIGHLY DESIRED (5) Bold effort to win two runs back at Goulburn and third up from a spell. Should muster plenty of early toe. Major hope. HARVEY’S WAY (13) Was first to greet the judge when winning last start around here and will appreciate a good gate. Respect against this field.
MIGHTYBEEL (3) Nice effort when winning two runs back at Randwick and James Mcdonald rates highly. Going well this preparation. Could take beating. LOVE TAP (1) Scored a victory three runs back at Kembla Grange but rising in weight. Nash Rawiller is a suitable jockey booking. Appears well in this. MA AND PA (5) Was much too speedy in front to win by 1 1/4L last run at Rosehill and expecting to settle positively. Strong form this campaign winning 4 from as many starts. Big danger. SHIBLI (6) Finished on top last run at Rosehill and backs up quickly today. Very competitive this campaign. Winnable race.
KING’S CHARISMA (4) At $5.5 came in 5th last time at Flemington. Expecting improvement. Classy enough for this field and is one of the major players. SHARED AMBITION (1) Peaked on the run when 2nd three runs back at Randwick. Should muster plenty of early speed. Well suited and should prove hard to beat. KISS THE BRIDE (3) Hit the line well when 3rd last run at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Will be competitive. HUSH WRITER (7) Ended up over 6L behind the winner at Randwick last start on a good track. Looking for an improved run. Has shown early pace in races to date. Suited.
FESTIVAL DANCER (10) Showed a clean pair of heels to win by a margin of nearly 5 1/2L last time at Goulburn and won’t be far away during the run. Racing consistently this campaign. Warrants a bet. ARNAQUEUR (4) Improved when 5th last run at Randwick. Will be hitting the line strongly. Keep in mind. DUFRESNE (1) Landed the spoils when winning three runs back at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Likely to be well placed early. Worth strong consideration. LEASE (2) Good result placing 2nd last start at Randwick and gets some weight taken off today. Should muster plenty of early speed. Trainer has gone for the blinkers off, take note. Worth keeping safe.
LOST AND RUNNING (1) Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd last time at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Can get the job done. TOP RANKED (2) Came in 2nd two runs back at Windsor and change in trainer to Annabel Neasham. Should be ready to fire fresh with 5 wins from 5 starts. Will be in the finish. BANDERSNATCH (5) Won by a big margin last start at Randwick but resuming from a spell. Displays good tactical speed. Winnable race. GEM SONG (3) Brave effort to win two runs back at the track and can save some energy from the alley. Resumes after a spell. Chance.
NORWEGIAN BLISS (11) Fought on well to win last run at Canterbury and shows good early pace. Strong form this preparation winning 3 from as many starts. Hard to overlook. FASHCHANEL (3) Was average finishing 8th last time at Rosehill. Should improve today. Having third run back from a break. Major player. TINKER MCPHEE (5) Didn’t find the line when 8th last start at Warwick Farm. Fresh after a break. Good prospect for the exotics at least. ZOU DE MOON (10) Was much too speedy in front to win by a margin of 1 1/2L last run at Scone and third up. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many attempts. Betting may be best guide to the chances and each way is the likely play.
GRAVINA (6) Kept finding the line when 3rd last run at Randwick. Honest enough customer who is strongly placed. KATALIN (12) Won narrowly last start at Rosehill and carrying less weight this time. Having second run back from a break. Looks a winning hope. EDIT (8) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Tamworth. Possesses good closing speed. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. ACQUITTED (3) Placed 3rd two runs back at Sandown and change in trainer to Kris Lees. Racing fresh today after a break. Genuine threat.
Race 1: Uncorked
Race 2: Ma And Pa
Race 3: Ceasefire
Race 5: Mightybeel
Race 6: King Charisma
Race 8: Lost And Running
Race 10: Gravina
Feature Saturday racing heads up the highway to Newcastle for their ‘Hunter’ card. Conditions dry Wednesday morning but 30-60mm was expected to set in later that afternoon so we will be downgraded significantly. The full extent of that prediction would probably have us Heavy but I’ll guess S6 or 7 at this stage. We begin with the Max Lees Classic, for 2YOs, and most of these step out for the first time. UNCORKED looked professional in her winning trial. Never led it outright but showed a good kick to put away the runner-up. RUSSIAN CONQUEST should also offer plenty on debut. None of them of course have any wet track credentials.
Selections: 9. Uncorked (Top Tip), 8. Russian Conquest, 3. Lord Of The Hunter, 4. Vancouver’s Crown
2, 7, 9, 10, 11 dual acceptors. Pace from 2 if here. 8 and 11 may have to step up if he’s absent. MA AND PA entered for a longer race later on but can control proceedings here without too many worries. He is putting together a lovely record and the fact Rawiller is on will mean he is a short priced fave again. All that said, if we’re on the worst side of Soft 6 I could look to CISCO BAY to cause what would be a minor upset. Comes through stronger races and may not have to get miles back in this lineup. He’s a genuine BM88 horse, particularly on wet. One quiet trial for HUETOR; I’d prefer to have a look here.
Selections: 1. Cisco Bay (Top Tip), 2. Ma And Pa, 4. Zegalo, 10. Sacred Command
Pace from 3, 4, 11, 14 and 18. Typically open. I’ll have TESTATOR SILENS after a very meritorious Highway debut last start. The rain won’t faze him and he sets up well in running. Plenty of dangers including STREET POWER. Gun run almost guaranteed here and his first attempt at this level was really positive as well. SHELBY SIXTYSIX has McDonald booked and was unlucky not to salute last start. Wary of him getting ‘buried’ here too though. CASINO KID doesn’t run poorly but his rearwards positioning is rarely a help.
Selections: 18. Testator Silens (Top Tip), 9. Street Power, 13. Shelby Sixtysix, 5. Casino Kid
12 to lead 5, 4 and 11. TAMPERING comes through the Four Pillars and the run was sound. I’m not here saying that $700,000 is necessarily the right formline for this but he is in the midst of a decent prep and can either lead or stalk here with Bowman riding. MISS SCALINI would be who I turn to if genuinely wet. She is a possible leader and has handled Heavy 10 without a worry. If respecting her we should also make time for LADIES’ GEM.
Selections: 4. Tampering (Top Tip), 12. Miss Scalini, 11. Ladies’ Gem, 13. Harvey’s Way
Waller with 5 of the 11 at preview time and they’re all racing well so this is a bit of a trick. Happy to look away from the leading stable though if LOVE TAP shows up to the race. He won much weaker races on wet at the start of his career so I’m hoping he can make the switch here without fuss. Rawiller knows him well of course and I’m sure would be looking at a top four position in run. Might just be wanting this distance now too. And while the Waller runners have been ‘BM78ing’ (hey, anything can be a verb these days) LOVE TAP comes through some seriously higher level races. Suspect MILK MAN’s Brisbane work could be underrated here too.
Selections: 1. Love Tap (Top Tip), 2. Milk Man, 5. Ma And Pa (SCRATCHED), 10. Solar Apex
3 to lead 1 and 6. This is probably (I think?) the biggest race Dylan Gibbons has ridden in and he has a great chance of winning it on SHARED AMBITION. For starters obviously the 3 kilos off is a great help, but he is a cool customer who won’t be fazed by crossing up prominent here. SHARED AMBITION is fine with anything down to Soft 7 and I wouldn’t turn away from him even if it was a bit worse than that either. Without winning he’s had an honest prep in genuine races (mostly won by the very genuine Think It Over) and if you go back further he was beating Entente and placing to Zaaki. KING’S CHARISMA the main danger for mine.
Selections: 1. Shared Ambition (Best of the Day), 4. King’s Charisma, 2. Yonkers, 3. Kiss The Bride
10 and 1 to cross up? Or perhaps Nash wants to push and hold on LEASE. FESTIVAL DANCER completed her hat-trick with a massive win at Goulburn and even though she is very deep into her campaign here I want to be respectful of her at this level. There’s really no reason not to be when we saw her beating LEASE two back fair and square. KOKORO looks to be on the up and full of promise. Has to cope with wetter ground here (I’m presuming).
Selections: 10. Festival Dancer (Top Tip), 7. Kokoro, 2. Lease, 6. Contributingfactor
11 to lead from 1 crossing up and 5 handy. That barrier only looks briefly scary for LOST AND RUNNING if you factor in the relative lack of real pace in this race. He’s never been a get-backer at any time so I think they’ll get busy and show some real positivity. If all that falls into place then his recent two runs are absolutely the right form to be winning this. PRIME CANDIDATE good enough to switch down south and run well again. Got to love his honesty. TOP RANKED has been working well we hear and was working at a high level back home. If CRIADERAS makes his way into the final field I would be compelled to throw even more money at him. We have a real love/hate thing going on.
Selections: 1. Lost And Running (Top Tip), 11. Prime Candidate, 2. Top Ranked, 16. Criaderas
1, 6, 8, 10 the dual acceptors. NORWEGIAN BLISS unbeaten and plenty to like about each of her wins. Has handled to Soft 7 so no real reason to think she won’t be happy on whatever we end up on here. Should pozzie perfectly too. BAROSSA ROSA the other big winning hope for mine. Gave a great sight last time and will be up (near the) front here too. MISS EINSTEIN fresh hardly the worst but she loves getting way back.
Selections: 11. Norwegian Bliss (Top Tip), 4. Barossa Rosa, 6. Miss Einstein, 3. Fashchanel
A very interesting race to close the day. Not heaps of speed. 9 could lead 14. Liked the trial of import ACQUITTED and the booking of Bowman looks a signal that the horse can be ready to win at his first foray out here. CANASTA races well fresh and is at least an each-way hope. EDIT ran a beauty in the Kosciuszko and got to the line well behind Eduardo last time too. Would love him to settle a bit closer. GRAVINA lobs up in the last of the day for the fourth time this prep. Expecting more of the same from him; he’ll run well but can’t be a short priced favourite in this field surely. (McDonald goes on so maybe he can be!)
Selections: 3. Acquitted (Value Bet), 9. Canasta, 8. Edit, 6. Gravina