AFL Round 15 Betting Tips





The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 15 of the 2022 AFL season.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for Melbourne vs. Brisbane on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

 

Melbourne vs. Brisbane

 

All five of Melbourne’s defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points while the same can be said for all eight of Brisbane’s defeats. I would back both Melbourne 1-39 at 2.25 (BlueBet) and Brisbane 1-39 at 2.63 (Unibet).

The 161.5 total market is interesting because Melbourne’s total scores this year have been 149 on average, while Brisbane has averaged a league-high 180 total points per game. Fremantle average just 146 points per game but their fixture against Brisbane resulted in 184 total points earlier this month. Over the last twelve months 11 of Melbourne’s 14 home games went over the total while 10 of Brisbane’s 12 away fixtures went over the total, including the last five. I would back over 160.5 points at 1.89 (bet365).

Sydney vs. St Kilda

 

Sydney have won seven straight as the home team against St Kilda and with the data set I have at hand they have won all six games as the home favourite against the Saints. The Swans lost last week but they have gone 6-2 on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. All nine of St Kilda’s defeats over the last 12 months were by 1-39 points and the Saints have gone 8-2 at the line over the last twelve months and 6-2 at the line as the underdog. I expect the Swans will win, but not by a huge margin. I would back Sydney 1-39 at 2.20 (PlayUp).

North Melbourne vs. Adelaide

 

Adelaide have struggled this season but this is simply a bet against North Melbourne, who have been the weaker of the two sides. The Kangaroos have lost eleven consecutive games by an average of 60 points. Their last nine defeats ranged between 47 and 78 point losing margins. This fixture is being played at Blundstone Arena where North Melbourne have gone 1-1-5 since 2020. I would back Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.36 (bet365).

 




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