2022/23 Premier League Season Preview

 

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The following is a 2022/23 Premier League season preview. Futures betting tips are provided at the bottom. This preview covers every club’s form and stats, key squad changes, positives, negatives, a survey of pundit predictions and futures odds. This article will be updated daily to incorporate the latest news as we approach the start of the season on August 5 (August 6 AEST).

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Arsenal

Arsenal

  • Last eight season finishes: 3, 2, 5, 6, 5, 8, 8, 5
  • Last season:
    • Faded in the home stretch to miss out on Champions League football for the 6th season running. Asenal did, however, qualify for the Europa league for the first time in three years.
    • Placing:: 5th with 69 points and a 22-3-13 record (13-2-4 at home and 9-1-9 away)
    • Offence:: 61 goals scored (35 at home and 26 away) – league rank: 8
    • Defence:: 48 goals conceded (17 at home and 31 away) – league rank: 5
  • Squad:
    • Manager: Mikel Arteta. At the helm since 2019 and began his managerial career in 2019.
    • Key arrivals: Gabriel Jesus (Man City, £45m), Fabio Vieira (Porto, £34.2m), Oleksandr Zinchenko (Man City, £30m), Marquinhos (Sao Paulo, £3m), Matt Turner (New England Revolution, £4.7m)
    • Key departures: Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, free), Daniel Ballard (Sunderland, was previously out on loan), Mattéo Guendouzi (Marseille, £9m, was previously out on loan), Nuno Tavares (Marseille, loan)
  • Interesting stat:
      Only had three draws last season. Only one of their last thirty games resulted in a draw. Part of this was due to Arsenal’s hot-and-cold nature, as highlighted by the fact that in their final 16 games, Arsenal scored exactly once in only two of them. During that run they scored 2+ goals in 9 games (all of which they won) and were held scoreless in 5 games (all of which they lost).
  • Positives:
    • They have plenty of young talent in the squad whose peak is ahead of them. Arsenal fielded the youngest average age in the league last season.
    • Strengthened the squad during the summer with acquisitions including Jesus, Vieira and Zinchenko. Jesus scrored seven times in pre-season.
    • Beat Chelsea 4-0 and Sevilla 6-0 in pre-season.
    • Manager Mikel Arteta has consistently had the backing of the club’s owners.
  • Negatives:
    • Have the added burden of the Europa League this season.
    • The Kroenke family, who own Arsenal, are unpopular with the fans.
    • Questions remain over Arteta’s coaching abilities following their late season capitulation in the Champions League race. Arteta isn’t as established as the managers of the other top-four hopefuls.
    • If they’re fit, at least nine members of the senior side will feature in the World Cup in Nov & Dec. This may create a post-World Cup hangover for the club.
  • Pundit table predictions: 6th1, 5th2, 5th3, 5th4, 4th5, 5th6, 6th7
  • bet365 futures odds:
    • Title winner: 34.00
    • Top four: 2.75
    • Not top four: 1.40
    • Top six: 1.57
    • Top half: 1.10
    • Bottom half: 7.00
    • Relegated: 501.00
    • Not relegated: N/A
    • Rock bottom: 4501.00
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    Aston Villa

    Aston Villa

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    Bournemouth

    Bournemouth

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    Brentford

    Brentford

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    Brighton

    Brighton

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    Chelsea

    Chelsea

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    Crystal Palace

    Crystal Palace

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    Everton

    Everton

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    Fulham

    Fulham

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    Leeds

    Leeds

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    Leicester City

    Leicester City

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    Liverpool

    Liverpool

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    Manchester City

    Manchester City

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    Manchester United

    Manchester United

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    Newcastle

    Newcastle

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    Nottingham Forest

    Nottingham Forest

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    Southampton

    Southampton

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    Tottenham

    Tottenham

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    West Ham

    West Ham

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    Wolverhampton

    Wolverhampton

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    Clubs I’m Optimistic For

    Newcastle now have the richest owners in world football. They took full advantage of the January transfer window and in 2022 they had the 4th best record in the league. Newcastle won 12 of their final 18 fixtures. They have since strengthened this summer with defensive acquisitions. The club’s summer business is likely not yet complete with James Maddison one of their current targets.

    Tottenham lifted once Antonio Conte was appointed last season. Only Liverpool and Man City picked up more points than Spurs in 2022, with City managing just 2 points more than Tottenham from January onward. Spurs have since strengthened the squad with the acquisitions of Bissouma and Richarlison.

    Arsenal also look promising due to their young, exciting squad that has been further strengthened over the summer. The remaining question marks are whether their peak will be in future seasons and whether Mikel Arteta’s managerial prowess is in the same league as Conte, Tuchel, Guardiola and Klopp.

    Clubs I’m Pessimistic For

    Southampton finished last season on a 1-2-9 run and they had the 3rd worst record in 2022. It was as similar story at the end of the 2020/21 season and this carried over with Southampton making a 0-4-3 start to the 2021/22 season. While the Saints have been active in the transfer window, their signings include mainly teenagers. While this bodes well for the club’s future, it remains to be seen what impact those players can have this year.

    Wolves finished last season in 0-2-5 form and they had only the 13th best record in 2022. They have had an injury-impacted pre-season. Chiquinho is out for possibly the whole season, while Traore and Jimenez are set to miss the season start.

    Bournemouth earned promotion using a squad that featured six loan players who have since returned to their parent clubs. Their transfer window has been relatively quiet for a newly promoted club.

    Everton were heavily involved in the relegation scrap last season and they have since sold arguably their best player in Richarlison.

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    Winner

    This season is unique because it will pause for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, which runs from November 21 to December 18. The Premier League will start again on Boxing Day. This will adversely affect the bigger clubs to a greater extent because they will have more players involved in the tournament. Club fans will be hoping that their players’ countries drop out at the group stage. Any players involved in a deep run into the tournament will come away physically and mentally drained, so we could see a hangover effect from the competition. There’s also the chance of players picking up injuries during the World Cup, which has been added on top of an already heavy fixture schedule. The World Cup increases uncertainty, which makes backing favourites less desirable.

    Man City are the obvious favourite at 1.75 (Unibet). Those odds have actually drifted since they lost the Community Shield 3-1 to Liverpool last weekend. City have won four of the last five seasons and they have added Erling Haaland & Kalvin Phillips to the squad, but I’d rather play wait and see and then bet on this market as the season progresses. Markets are incredibly reactive at the start of the season so even after Gameweek 1 you may see higher odds for City given they have a tricky away fixture against West Ham while Liverpool travel to the newly promoted Fulham.

    Liverpool at 3.50 (various bookmakers) holds appeal given they out-performed Man City in the 2022 calendar year. If Erling Haaland doesn’t live up to the hype for City then Liverpool stand a good chance of winning the title.

    Relegation

    My list of teams that could theoretically go down is:
    Aston Villa, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leeds, Wolves, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth

    Of those sides, I predict that Aston Villa, Brighton, Crystal Palace will have sufficient squad depth and quality to avoid trouble. Leeds have spent the transfer fees received for Kalvin Phillips & Raphinha to add depth during the off-season and they had injury excuses last year. I don’t expect Wolves will have a great season but I can’t overlook the fact that they had the 5th best defensive record last season, which always puts you in good stead. Somewhere like 13th-15th looks more likely than 18th for them. Brentford finished last season strongly and they have strengthened during the summer. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Nottingham Forest will be safe. It’s not so much because of their epic spending spree, although bringing in Jesse Lingard helps, but because of their manager Steve Cooper. Forest would have won the Championship had it started the day Cooper took over and they enjoyed a strong FA Cup run during which they beat Leicester City and Arsenal before losing narrowly to Liverpool. This suggests Cooper has the tactical nous to succeed in the Premier League.

    This leaves the following primary candidates for the drop:

    Everton at 5.50 (PlayUp)
    Frank Lampard is virtually everyone’s favourite to be the first manager to be sacked. To comply with FFP regulations they can’t spend much this summer and they have been forced to sell Richarlison.

    Southampton at 4.50 (BlueBet)
    They finished last season in really poor form. Southampton have brought in new signings but they’re primarily young players with a look to the future.

    Fulham at 2.25 (bet365)
    Their previous two promotions resulted in immediate relegation and while manager Marco Silva does have Premier League experience, his results were poor. Striker Aleksandar Mitrović set the Championship alight last season but he only managed 3 goals in his previous Premier League season.

    Bournemouth at 1.60 (BlueBet)
    Bournemouth relied on six loan signings last season and all of those players have returned to their parent clubs. They have been relatively quiet in the transfer market.

    bet365 offers a ‘Relegated Teams’ market where you can pick your trio of clubs to be relegated. If I had to make my best guess I would select:
    Bournemouth, Fulham, Southampton at 23.00 or
    Bournemouth, Everton, Fulham at 34.00

    Some longer odds selections are:
    Bournemouth, Everton, Southampton at 51.00
    Everton, Fulham, Southampton at 67.00

    Winner W/O Big 6

    For the winner without Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United & Tottenham, my pick is Newcastle at 3.25 (Unibet). Now with the richest owners in world football, Newcastle won 12 of their final 18 fixtures last season and they have strengthened this summer with defensive acquisitions. Their main rival for this market is West Ham, who have the added burden of the Europa Conference League – a competition they have the ability to go deep in. West Ham faded at the back end of last season as their Europa League journey took its toll.

    Winner W/O Man City and Liverpool

    Tottenham holds appeal at 2.75 (Unibet). They only picked up 2 fewer points than Man City in 2022 and they have since added quality to the squad during the off-season.

    Winner W/O Man City

    Liverpool holds strong appeal at 1.50 (Unibet). Their new striker Darwin Nunez scored against Man City in their 3-1 Community Shield win and they finished last season in 16-3-0 form. Liverpool scored 8 more points than any other club in 2022.

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    Notes

    Table prediction sources:

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    Author: info

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